Will the road-course aces maintain their dominance at COTA? Racing Insights' projection model has crunched the numbers, recent track trends, team strengths, and past history to forecast Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series road-course race at Circuit of The Americas (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). The metrics suggest great things are in store for a slew of road-course aces, but will they continue their winning streak?
Following Saturday's qualifying session, with Daytona 500 and EchoPark Speedway winner Tyler Reddick capturing the Busch Light Pole, the data suggests the usual road-course suspects are expected to make a play for the Texas-sized victory. Here's how the field currently stacks up heading into the bout at the 2.4-mile Austin, Texas, track.
DRIVERS TO WATCH:
SHANE VAN GISBERGEN: Though the No. 97 Trackhouse Racing pilot is starting in a relatively mortal position to begin Sunday's contest (13th), the metrics still believe the New Zealand native will find Victory Lane. Recent history backs this claim; van Gisbergen has won the last five road-course races, and his average finish of 7.58 turning left and right is second-best all-time among drivers with four-plus starts, with NASCAR Hall of Famer Fireball Roberts (2.78) the only exception. Should he emerge victorious, van Gisbergen will be only the second driver to win six consecutive road-course races. The other? Jeff Gordon from 1997-2000. Will immortality be achieved?
CHRISTOPHER BELL: Of course, if there is a driver who could usurp the Kiwi at COTA, it could very well be the driver who bested him there for the win last season. The No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing driver will start Sunday in eighth, and though Bell has two career COTA finishes outside the top 30, he's been nails otherwise, tallying three top-three results at the facility. Bell's 18 laps led at COTA additionally rank sixth among active drivers.
RYAN BLANEY: The 2023 Cup Series champion arguably turned the most heads during Saturday's on-track action, with the No. 12 Team Penske Ford tallying the second-fastest practice time and keeping momentum through qualifying, earning a fourth-place starting position. Whether the 32-year-old superstar can translate Saturday's success to a Sunday triumph, though, remains to be seen; Blaney is on a 24-race streak without a top-five finish on road courses and has never finished inside the top five on a left- and right-turning circuit in the Next Gen era.
FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR 2026 DURAMAX TEXAS GRAND PRIX POWERED BY RELADYNE (3:30 P.M. ET, FOX):
FINISH CAR NUMBER DRIVER:
1 97 Shane van Gisbergen
2 20 Christopher Bell
3 45 Tyler Reddick
4 1 Ross Chastain
5 24 William Byron
6 9 Chase Elliott
7 12 Ryan Blaney
8 16 AJ Allmendinger
9 5 Kyle Larson
10 17 Chris Buescher
11 19 Chase Briscoe
12 71 Michael McDowell
13 48 Alex Bowman
14 54 Ty Gibbs
15 8 Kyle Busch
16 60 Ryan Preece
17 7 Daniel Suárez
18 22 Joey Logano
19 6 Brad Keselowski
20 77 Carson Hocevar
21 34 Todd Gilliland
22 38 Zane Smith
23 23 Bubba Wallace
24 11 Denny Hamlin
25 2 Austin Cindric
26 41 Cole Custer
27 4 Noah Gragson
28 35 Riley Herbst
29 10 Ty Dillon
30 42 John Hunter Nemechek
31 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
32 3 Austin Dillon
33 21 Josh Berry
34 88 Connor Zilisch
35 43 Erik Jones
36 51 Cody Ware
37 33 Jesse Love
MUST WATCH: But here's where it gets controversial... Will the road-course aces maintain their dominance at COTA? We'll find out on Sunday. Don't miss it!
