Is Tynan Lawrence’s Slow Start at BU a Red Flag for NHL Scouts? But here's where it gets controversial... The 2026 NHL Draft is heating up, and with my midseason rankings now live (check them out here), it’s time to dive into your burning questions about the top prospects. From Tynan Lawrence’s underwhelming debut at BU to the Olympic hopefuls turning heads, this mailbag has it all. Let’s get started!
Tynan Lawrence: Slow Start or Cause for Concern?
And this is the part most people miss... Tynan Lawrence’s transition to BU has been the talk of the draft class, with fans and scouts alike debating his early struggles. Let’s break it down.
The Numbers: Lawrence has played 5 games with 0 goals, 0 assists, 5 shots on goal, and a -2 rating. According to InStat, he’s shown some promise with 11 shot attempts, 2 hits, and 2 slot passes, but his 49% faceoff win rate and limited power-play time (2.5 minutes per game) raise questions. His opponents—Harvard, UMass (twice), and UMass-Lowell (twice)—aren’t exactly pushovers, ranking 20th, 28th, and 49th in the NCAA’s new NPI index. Plus, as an August 2008 birthday, he’s the second-youngest player in college hockey, just 10 days older than Oscar Hemming.
Glass Half Full: Lawrence is adjusting to a new city, team, system, and linemates midseason, all while juggling school. His youth and the challenges of the USHL, where he was a standout, deserve consideration. It’s a steep learning curve, and patience might pay off.
Glass Half Empty: Critics point to his lack of production at both five-on-five and on the power play. Comparisons to players like Hemming (2 points, 8 shots in 4 games at BC) and Will Horcoff (10 points in 18 games at Michigan) highlight Lawrence’s slower start. These players made similar midseason jumps but produced more immediately.
The Reality: Lawrence is a premium prospect with pro-level attributes, but his offensive ceiling was already a question mark. His draft year has been unconventional—he could’ve played in the QMJHL, where his stock might’ve soared, but he chose to captain Muskegon in the USHL before leaving after just 13 games. NHL teams will undoubtedly grill him about these decisions.
Olympics 2026: Prospects to Watch
Who’s headed to the Olympics and worth your attention? Here’s my shortlist:
- Slovakia: Adam Gajan (G, Blackhawks), Dalibor Dvorsky (F, Blues)
- Italy: Damian Clara (G, Ducks)
- Latvia: Alberts Smits (D, 2026), Dans Locmelis (F, Bruins), Sandis Vilmanis (F, Panthers)
- Denmark: Oscar Fisker Molgaard (F, Kraken)
Alberts Smits is the standout. A strong performance against NHLers could solidify his top-five pick status. And while not a prospect, keep an eye on Simon Nemec (Devils’ 2022 No. 2 pick) as he takes on a key role for Slovakia.
Malhotra vs. Desnoyers: Who’s the Better Two-Way Center?
Both Caleb Malhotra and Caleb Desnoyers are 6’1”, 180-pound centers known for their leadership and 200-foot game. But there are differences. Desnoyers had a higher profile entering his draft year, with a QMJHL All-Rookie Team nod and a gold medal at U18 worlds. He also produced more (114 points in 75 games) and won QMJHL Playoffs MVP. Malhotra, while impressive, is on pace for 102 points in 75 games. If Brantford wins the OHL title and Malhotra plays in the Memorial Cup, he could climb into Desnoyers’ draft territory.
The Changing Development Landscape
With college eligibility now open to CHL players, evaluating leagues like the USHL and BCHL has become trickier. I’ve still watched plenty of USHL games—Muskegon (Lawrence, Rudolfs Berzkalns), Youngstown (Jack Hextall, Evan Jardine), Des Moines (Blake Zielinski), and Green Bay (Landon Hafele)—but the BCHL has fallen off my radar. Tier 2 junior leagues like the OJHL are also struggling to stay relevant.
Draft Position Breakdown
This year’s draft is deepest on the wing and defense, with just 3 centers in my top 17. Last year, I had 8 centers in my top 15! Goalies are a weak point—only one might crack my top 100, compared to six last year.
Sleeper Picks and League Tiers
Keep an eye on Ryan Lin, Viggo Bjorck, and Xavier Villeneuve as potential mid-to-late first-round steals. Marcus Nordmark and Nikita Klepov are also undervalued. As for league tiers:
- Tier 1: KHL, SHL, AHL
- Tier 2: NL, Liiga, DEL, Czech Extraliga
- Tier 3: HockeyAllsvenskan, ECHL, Slovak Extraliga, VHL, EIHL, EBEL
Is This Draft Weaker Than Expected?
I’ve been consistent in calling this an average to below-average draft, despite the hype. Comparing this year’s top five (Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, Keaton Verhoeff, Tynan Lawrence, Chase Reid) to last year’s, I’d rank them:
- Matthew Schaefer 2-4. Ivar Stenberg, Gavin McKenna, Michael Misa 5-6. Keaton Verhoeff, Chase Reid 7-9. Anton Frondell, Caleb Desnoyers, Tynan Lawrence
- Brady Martin
Your Turn! What’s your take on Lawrence’s start? Who’s your dark horse prospect for the Olympics? Let’s debate in the comments!
